Publications by C. Carcaillet

Fire in managed forests in eastern Canada: Risks and options.

Tue, 21 May 2013

In this era of climate change, understanding past and predicting future fire activity are scientific challenges that are central to the development of sustainable forest management practices and policies. Such objectives, however, are difficult to achieve for several reasons. Uncertainties about future fire activity can be superimposed on the short time period covered by existing meteorological data and fire statistics, from which a historical range of variability can be determined. Regional fire activity is also tremendously variable over time, such that contemporary fire records cannot provide information on the full range of fire activity variability a given forest experienced and adapted to. This factor is increasingly important when it comes to determining the resilience of boreal forests to changes in climate and disturbance regimes. In this paper, we present a synthesis of past, present and future trends in seasonal fire danger and fire activity based on data gathered in eastern Canadian boreal forests over the last 20 years, and we provide a critical assessment of the ability to conduct sustainable forest management over the 21st century. The data synthesis provides compelling evidence of a synchronous pattern of decreasing fireconducive climatic conditions and activity of large fire seasons over the last 2000 years in the eastern coniferous boreal forest. Model simulations suggest that the climate will become drier in upcoming decades, driving future fire activity close to the upper bound of the pre-industrial range of variability. The effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with forest harvesting may thus pose a risk to forest resilience in the future. This ecological knowledge should help us to define forest management strategies and practices considering future fire activity changes forecasted under climate change. Development of alternative silvicultural interventions that would emulate secondary disturbances (e.g. wind, insects) rather than fire would be necessary to maintain pre-industrial forest characteristics (e.g. composition and age class distribution), and associated forest resilience.

Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after AD 1500.

Fri, 26 Apr 2013

The significance and cause of the decline in biomass burning across the Americas after ad 1500 is a topic of considerable debate. We synthesized charcoal records (a proxy for biomass burning) from the Americas and from the remainder of the globe over the past 2000 years, and compared these with paleoclimatic records and population reconstructions. A distinct post-ad 1500 decrease in biomass burning is evident, not only in the Americas, but also globally, and both are similar in duration and timing to ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change. There is temporal and spatial variability in the expression of the biomass-burning decline across the Americas but, at a regional–continental scale, ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline.

Predictability of biomass burning in response to climate changes.

Mon, 24 Dec 2012

Climate is an important control on biomass burning, but the sensitivity of fire to changes in temperature and moisture balance has not been quantified. We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data

Fri, 10 Dec 2010

Natural ecosystems have developed within ranges of conditions that can serve as references for setting conservation targets or assessing the current ecological integrity of managed ecosystems. Because of their climate determinism, forest fires are likely to have consequences that could exacerbate biophysical and socioeconomical vulnerabilities in the context of climate change. We evaluated future trends in fire activity under climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest and investigated whether these changes were included in the variability observed during the last 7000 years from sedimentary charcoal records from three lakes. Prediction of future annual area burned was made using simulated Monthly Drought Code data collected from an ensemble of 19 global climate model experiments. The increase in burn rate that is predicted for the end of the 21st century (0.45% year^-1 with 95% confidence interval (0.32, 0.59) falls well within the long-term past variability (0.37 to 0.90% year ^-1). Although our results suggest that the predicted change in burn rates per se will not move this ecosystem to new conditions, the effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with current rates of clear-cutting or other low-retention types of harvesting, which still prevail in this region, remain preoccupying.

Holocene fires in eastern Canada: towards a forest management perspective in light of future global changes

Wed, 08 Sep 2010

Eastern boreal North American wildfire risk of the past 7000 years: a model-data comparison

Tue, 03 Aug 2010

We present here a 7000-year wildfire reconstruction based on sedimentary charcoal series from five lakes located south of Hudson Bay in eastern boreal North America. The reconstruction shows a significant downward trend in the frequency of large fires from 0.0061 fire yr^-1 ca. 5000 cal yr BP to 0.0033 fire yr^-1 at present. Simulations of fire-season climate based on UK Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Programme output and reconstructions based on proxy data both indicate a shift toward increasing available moisture in the region between the mid-Holocene and today. We infer that the diminishing trend in wildfire activity was ultimately caused by the steady orbitally driven reduction in summer insolation. Future higher temperatures not compensated for by significant precipitation increases will bring fire frequency back toward its upper limit, recorded between 6000 and 2000 cal yr BP.

Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America.

Thu, 15 Sep 2011

It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

Forest management is driving the eastern North American boreal forest outside its natural range of variability

Thu, 07 Jan 2010

Fire is fundamental to the natural dynamics of the North American boreal forest. It is therefore often suggested that the impacts of anthropogenic disturbances (eg logging) on a managed landscape are attenuated if the patterns and processes created by these events resemble those of natural disturbances (eg fire). To provide forest management guidelines, we investigate the long-term variability in the mean fire interval (MFI) of a boreal landscape in eastern North America, as reconstructed from lacustrine (lake-associated) sedimentary charcoal. We translate the natural variability in MFI into a range of landscape age structures, using a simple modeling approach. Although using the array of possible forest age structures provides managers with some flexibility, an assessment of the current state of the landscape suggests that logging has already caused a shift in the age-class distribution toward a stronger representation of young stands with a concurrent decrease in old-growth stands. Logging is indeed quickly forcing the studied landscape outside of its long-term natural range of variability, implying that substantial changes in management practices are required, if we collectively decide to maintain these fundamental attributes of the boreal forest.

Heterogeneous response of circumboreal wildfire risk to climate change since the early 1900s

Tue, 10 Nov 2009

We investigated changes in wildfire risk over the 1901-2002 (AD) period with an analysis of broad-scale patterns of July monthly drought code (MDC) variability on 28 forested ecoregions of the North American and Eurasian continents. The MDC is an estimate of the net effect of changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation on cumulative moisture depletion in soils, and is well correlated with annual fire statistics across the circumboreal (explaining 25–61% of the variance in regional area burned). We used linear trend and regime shift analyses to investigate (multi-) decadal changes in MDC and percentage area affected by drought, and kernel function for analysis of temporal changes in the occurrence rates of extreme drought years. Our analyses did not reveal widespread patterns of linear increases in dryness through time as a response to rising Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Instead, we found heterogeneous patterns of drought severity changes that were inherent to the nonuniformly distributed impacts of climate change on dryness. Notably, significant trends toward increasing summer moisture in southeastern and southwestern boreal Canada were detected. The diminishing wildfire risk in these regions is coherent with widely reported decreases in area burned since about 1850, as reconstructed by dendrochronological dating of forest stands. Conversely, we found evidence for increasing percentage area affected by extreme droughts in Eurasia (10.57% per decade; P<0.05) and occurrence rates of extreme drought years in Eurasian taiga (centered principally on the Okhotsk–Manchurian taiga, P=0.07). Although not statistically significant, temporal changes in occurrence rates are sufficiently important spatially to be paid further attention. The absence of a linear trend in MDC severity, in conjunction with the presence of an increase in the occurrence rate of extreme drought years, suggest that fire disturbance regimes in the Eurasian taiga could be shifting toward being increasingly pulse dependent.

Change of fire frequency in the eastern Canadian boreal forests during the Holocene: does vegetation composition or climate trigger the fire regime?

Thu, 07 Mar 2002

Studies on the variability of natural fire regimes are needed to understand plant responses in a changing environment. Since vegetation changes might follow or trigger changes in fire frequency, climate models suggest that changes in water balance will accompany current global warming, and the response of fire regimes to Holocene hydro-climate changes and vegetation switches may thus serve as a useful analogue for current change.
We present high-resolution charcoal records from laminated cores from three small kettle lakes located in mixed-boreal and coniferous-boreal forest. Comparison with some pollen diagrams from the lakes is used to evaluate the role of the local vegetation in the fire history. Fire frequency was reconstructed by measuring the separation of peaks after detrending the charcoal accumulation rate from any background.
Several distinct periods of fire regime were detected with fire intervals. Between c. 7000–3000 cal. year BP, fire intervals were double those in the last 2000 years. Fire frequency changed 1000 years earlier in the coniferous-boreal forest than in the mixedboreal forest to the south. The absence of changes in combustibility species in the pollen data that could explain the fire frequency transition suggests that the vegetation does not control the long-term fire regime in the boreal forest.
Climate appears to be the main process triggering fire. The increased frequency may be the result of more frequent drought due to the increasing influence of cool dry westerly Pacific air-masses from mid to late Holocene, and thus of conditions conducive to ignition and fire spread. In east Canada, this change matches other long-term climate proxies and suggests that a switch in atmospheric circulation 2–3000 years ago triggered a less stable climate with more dry summers. Future warming is moreover likely to reduce fire frequency.

Future fire in Canada’s boreal forest

Fri, 05 Oct 2001

General circulation model simulations suggest the Earth's climate will be 1–3.5°C warmer by AD 2100. This will influence disturbances such as forest fires, which are important to circumpolar boreal forest dynamics and, hence, the global carbon cycle. Many suggest climate warming will cause increased fire activity and area burned. Here, we use the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to simulate future forest fire danger, showing the expected increase in most of Canada but with significant regional variability including a decrease in much of eastern Canada. These results are in general agreement with paleoecological data and general circulation model results from the 6000 calendar years BP interval, which was a time of a warmer climate that may be an analogue for a future climate.

Fire frequency, vegetation and climate changes for 6800 yrs in the eastern boreal forest, Abitibi, Quebec

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

Variability in fire frequency and forest composition in Canada's southeastern boreal forest: a challenge for sustainable forest management

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

Fire weather: past, present and future.

Thu, 08 Nov 2001

Fire weather: past, present and future.

Thu, 08 Nov 2001

Variability in fire frequency and forest composition in Canada's southeastern boreal forest: a challenge for sustainable forest management

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

Because some consequences of fire resemble the effects of industrial forest harvesting, forest management is often considered as a disturbance having effects similar to those of natural disturbances. Although the analogy between forest management and fire disturbance in boreal ecosystems has some merit, it is important to recognize that it has limitations. First, normal forest rotations truncate the natural forest stand age distribution and eliminate over-mature forests from the landscape. Second, in the boreal mixedwoods, natural forest dynamics following fire may involve a gradual replacement of stands of intolerant broadleaf species by mixedwood and then softwood stands, whereas current silvicultural practices promote successive rotations of similarly composed stands. Third, the large fluctuations observed in fire frequency during the Holocene limit the use of a single fire cycle to characterize natural fire regimes. Short fire cycles generally described for boreal ecosystems do not appear to be universal; rather, shifts between short and long fire cycles have been observed. These shifts imply important changes in forest composition at the landscape and regional levels. All of these factors create a natural variability in forest composition that should be maintained by forest managers concerned with the conservation of biodiversity. One avenue is to develop silvicultural techniques that maintain a spectrum of forest compositions over the landscape.