Publications - Forest Fires

A climatologically based long-range fire growth model

Tue, 16 Nov 2010

Proceedings of the Eighth Central Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, April 3, 1992, Winnipeg, Manitoba

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

Proceedings of the Sixth Western Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, March 23, 1992, Edmonton, Alberta.

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

A test of two mesoscale meterological models in Jasper National Park

Mon, 05 Nov 2001

Predicting lightning occurrence and frequency from upper air soundings over Stony Plain, Alberta

Tue, 18 Jun 2002

Quantile characteristics of forest fires in Saskatchewan

Wed, 28 Mar 2007

The fire weather and fire behavior characteristics of 8296 forest fires in Saskatchewan were studied to assess the significance of various fields at determining fire detection. The median fire (the fiftieth percentile) detected within the primary zone is discovered around 3:15 PM at approximately 0.1 hectares in size. Assuming the fire has reached equilibrium, the rate of spread is typically 2 m/min and has a head fire intensity of 1500 kW/m. Trees within the fire will likely be candling but not yet developing into a solid crown flame front. Mean values for fires detected within the secondary zone are larger that those in the primary zone indicating that fires are generally detected at more advanced stages of growth - likely a result of less intensive detection efforts. A comparison of the probability of sustained ignition within dry lodgepole pine with the observed quantile distribution of ISI at time of ignition within C3 fuels suggests that the distribution is an appropriate representation of the product of the probabilities of arrival and of detection. This can be extended to using ROS and HFI , thus extending the probability calculations to all fuel types.

Predicting fire-weather severity using seasonal forecasts

Thu, 31 Jan 2008

This paper presents a methodology to predict the fire weather severity for an upcoming fire season using Environment Canada's seasonal forecasts, the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) and observations stored in the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Fire-weather severity was evaluated by comparing the forecasted Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), an index within the CFFDRS, to the average SSR. Calculations of forecasted and average SSR were conducted for a number of stations across Canada. Average SSRs were based on average weather conditions per station from 1971 to 2000 as calculated by the CWFIS. Forecasted SSRs were created by applying seasonal anomalies systematically to each daily average weather value per station using the seasonal outlook as provided by Environment Canada. Maps showing the forecasted and average SSR were produced and a map showing the ratio of the two was used to indicate the predicted fire weather severity for 2007.

Operational forest fire-growth predictions for Canada

Thu, 31 Jan 2008

This paper presents an operational model that predicts fire growth for wildland fires occurring in Canada. National fuels and elevation grids, forecasted weather and fires detected by remote sensing are entered into a fire growth model. Predicted fire perimeters are mapped and presented to the public over the Internet through the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/). Current wildland fires are detected nationally using MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR satellite-based detection systems (burning areas detected by these systems are referred to as hotspots). Regions selected for fire-growth modelling include those with hotspots occurring near a community, and clusters of hotspots in areas of high fire danger. For each selected region, a fire-growth simulation environment is assembled. Fuel type data from several fire management agencies is available in grid format at a resolution of 100 m or less; in areas where such data is not available, a national fuels map based on SPOT VGT land cover and forest industry is used. Similarly, terrain data is available from a variety of sources. Current hotspots are used as ignition points while past hotspots are used to delineate area burned. Surface wind, temperature and dew-point values (forecasted by Environment Canada) are used to determine the fire weather conditions at the fire location. The use of this model is illustrated for a large fire in Wood Buffalo National Park, which burned nearly 200 000 ha in July 2007.

An approach to operational forest fire growth predictions for Canada

Wed, 06 Jan 2010

This paper presents an operational approach to predicting fire growth for wildland fires in Canada. The approach addresses data assimilation to provide predictions in a timely and efficient manner. Fuels and elevation grids, forecast weather, and active fire locations are entered into a fire-growth model; then predicted fire perimeters are mapped and presented on the web. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration AdvancedVery High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR) satellite-based detection systems are used to detect current wildland fires (referred to as hotspots). For selected regions, fire-growth simulation environments are assembled. Fuel type data from several fire management agencies are available in grid format at a resolution of 100m or less; in areas where such data are not available, a national fuels map based on Satellite Pour l’Observation de laTerreVegetation sensor (SPOTVGT) land cover and forest inventory is used. Similarly, terrain data are available from a variety of sources. Current hotspots are used as ignition points while past hotspots are used to delineate area burned. Surface wind, temperature, and dew-point values (forecast by Environment Canada) are used to determine the fire weather conditions at the fire location. A case study of two large fires in Canada consisting of 54 fire simulation days is used to test these hypotheses.

Using ensemble techniques in fire-growth modelling

Wed, 26 Oct 2005

A preparedness planning evaluation model

Tue, 18 Jun 2002

Linear programming techniques for initial attack resource deployment

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

Modeling of fire occurrence in the boreal forest region of Canada

Tue, 18 Jun 2002

Validating the overwintering effect on the Drought Code in Elk Island National Park

Fri, 26 Mar 2004

A modified suppression response decision support system for Wood Buffalo National Park

Tue, 18 Jun 2002

Fire-growth modelling using meteorological data with random and systematic perturbations

Tue, 01 May 2007

he focus of this investigation is to quantify the effects of perturbations in the meteorological data used in a fire-growth model. Observed variations of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction are applied as perturbations to hourly values within a simulated weather forecast to produce several forecasts. In turn, these are used by a deterministic eight-point fire-growth model to produce an ensemble of possible final fire perimeters. Two studies were conducted to assess the value of applying perturbations. In the first study, fire growth using detailed, one-minute data was compared to growth based on the more commonly used hourly data. Results showed that the detailed weather produced fire growth larger and wider than the hourly based data. By applying perturbations, variations in the flank and back-fire spread were captured by the random-perturbation model while the forward spread fell within the 20 to 30% probability prediction. A sensitivity analysis based on the observed variations showed that wind speed accounted for a 44% difference in area burned, while temperature accounted for only a 16% difference. In the second study, case studies were conducted on four observed forest fires in Wood Buffalo National Park. Results showed that daily fire-growth predictions using simulated weather forecasts over-predicted fire growth using actual hourly weather observations by 27%. Systematic-perturbation models best compensated for this with most fire growth falling within the predicted range of the models (52 out of 63 days).

Biomass burning in the global environment: first results from the IGAC/BIBEX field campaign STARE/TRACE-A SAFARI-92.

Wed, 09 May 2012

Biomass burning is now recognized as a major source of important trace gases, including CO2, NO2, CO and CH4, and of aerosol particles. It takes on many forms: burning of forested areas for land clearing, extensive burning of grasslands and savannas to sustain grazing lands, burning of harvest debris, and use of biomass fuel for heating. The emissions from biomass burning represent a large perturbation to global atmospheric chemistry, especially in the tropics. Here, satellite observations have shown high levels of 03 and CO over vast areas of Africa, South America, and the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Recent studies have linked this phenomenon to biomass burning plumes, and demonstrate that pyrogenic emissions affect regional ozone concentrations and the oxidative characteristics of the tropical atmosphere. The particulates affect regional global radiation budgets by their light-scattering effects and their influence on cloud microphysical processes.

Tree mortality and snag dynamics in North American boreal tree species after a wildfire: a long-term study.

Tue, 27 Sep 2011

Temporal patterns of tree mortality and snag dynamics after fire were investigated over 10 years in a permanent plot design established immediately after a wildfire in an eastern boreal forest landscape of north-western Quebec, Canada. Post-fire tree mortality, snag persistence, tree fall patterns and variables influencing snag dynamics were assessed in deciduous, mixed and coniferous stands that experienced low- and moderate-severity fires. Temporal patterns of tree mortality for the three species revealed that mortality was delayed through time. Most post-fire tree mortality occurred within 2 years following fire but continued until the end of the 10-year observation period. Jack pine was the most persistent snag species, followed by trembling aspen and black spruce. Factors influencing the persistence of snags were multi-scaled and generally species-specific. Fire severity was the only common factor influencing snag persistence among all species, with snags located in severely-burned stands being less susceptible to falling. Trembling aspen snag persistence increased with basal area and diameter. Salvage logging in the vicinity affected black spruce. Fall patterns also differed among species. Bypasses of the snag stage (i.e. when a living tree falls directly to the forest floor) as well as uprooting of snags were common.

Succession forestière après feu dans la sapinière à bouleau jaune du Bas-Saint-Laurent, Québec

Tue, 22 Aug 2000

Forest successions following a forest fire that occurred in 1932 were studied on mesic sites of the boreal mixedwood forest of the Bas-Saint-Laurent region of Quebec, Canada. Physiographic, soil and vegetation data were collected in 28 ecosystems distributed on a topographic gradient. The vegetation composition of the main canopy, 64 years after the fire, varied according to topographic situation. The proportion of tolerant hardwood species (yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.)) increased toward upper slopes whereas it was the opposite for coniferous species (white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.)), as their proportion increased toward lower slopes. Intolerant hardwood species (white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.)) were abundant in all ecosystems. The distribution pattern of regeneration density and stocking of tolerant hardwoods and conifers was similar to that of the main canopy. The majority of commercial species, including tolerant species, established rapidly after the fire. Only eastern white cedar (Thuya occidentalis L.), which is a species typical of late succession, did not grow back. Ten years after the fire, 78% of the sampled dominant trees were established. Competition caused by mountain maple (Acer spicatum Lam.) did not seem to be as important after fire compared with the situation after clearcutting. Results showed that after the elimination of intolerant species, the vegetation composition should evolve toward the potential vegetation (climax) of the toposequence, that is, the sugar maple - yellow birch type on upper slopes, the balsam fir - yellow birch type on midslopes and the balsam fir - yellow birch - cedar type on lower slopes.

Spontaneous combustion of forest fuels: a review

Wed, 14 Jul 2004

Possible periodicities in weather patterns and Canadian forest fire seasons

Wed, 14 Jul 2004

Mounting the attack on wildfire: the video

Fri, 04 Jan 2002

Spatial modelling of wildland fire danger for risk analysis and conflict resolution in Malaysia: linking Fire Danger Rating Systems(FDRS) with Wildfire Threat Rating Systems(WTRS).

Mon, 10 Sep 2012

This study provides a comprehensive framework to mitigate or prevent forest and land (or wildland) fire disaster in Malaysia. This system supports emergency response and preparedness for wildland fire by means of integrated modelling, monitoring and mapping of fire danger. In this framework, multi-sensor applications for monitoring fire danger and fire activity are linked with decision-aid models in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to generate information required for wildland fire management. Using a customized version of the spatial Fire Management System software, components of the Malaysia Fire Danger Rating System (FDRS) are calculated to provide fire weather, fire behaviour and wildfire threat information. Wildfire threat ratings (WTRs) are assessed on the basis of fire occurrence risk, potential fire behaviour, suppression capability and values at risk. Outputs from the Malaysia FDRS were integrated with hotspots extracted from remote sensing data to generate combined maps of active fire locations, fire danger, potential fire behaviour and uncontrolled wildland fire (or wildfire) threat. In case of wildfire, remotely sensed data were also used to generate wildfire affected area and emergency response maps for emergency management. The system architecture and application models for wildfire analysis, which aid decision-making components for wildfire mitigation and relief, are described. These include early warning of fire, risk analysis, damage assessment and emergency response analysis. This article provides the first documentation of a national, operational system linking fire danger rating with socio-economic values, as defined by the WTR models, to guide fire and rescue decision-making during wildfire events. It is finally shown how the proposed system can reduce the risk of fire management disputes in Malaysia by directing the conflict to a more favourable resolution.

Postfire regeneration of plant and soil organic pools in a Picea mariana-Cladonia stellaris ecosystem

Sat, 26 Aug 2000

Influence of fire and mountain pine beetle on the dynamics of lodgepole pine stands in British Columbia, Canada

Thu, 16 Apr 2009

An outbreak of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins; MPB), currently affecting over 10.1 million hectares of lodgepole pine forests (Pinus contorta Dougl.) in British Columbia, Canada, is the largest in recorded history. We examined the dynamics of even-aged lodgepole pine forests in southern British Columbia, which were undergoing this MPB outbreak. Using dendroecology and forest measurements we reconstructed the stand processes of stand initiation, stand disturbances, tree mortality, and regeneration, and explained the current stand structure and the potential MPB impacts in selected stands. Our results indicate that stand-replacing fires initiated even-aged seral lodgepole pine stands in this region. In the absence of fire in the 20th century, multiple MPB disturbances, which each resulted in partial canopy removal, modified the simple one-layer structure of the fire-origin stands by the initiation of post-MPB disturbance regeneration layers, transforming the stands into complex, multi-aged stands. Despite high overstory mortality due to the current MPB outbreak, regeneration layers, which are likely to survive the current outbreak, will provide important ecological legacies and will contribute to mid-term timber supply.