Canadian Forest Service Publications

Ignition probabilities for simulated people caused fires in British Columbia’s lodgepole pine and white spruce-subalpine fir forests. 1994. Lawson, B.D.; Armitage, O.B.; Dalrymple, G.N. Pages 493-505 in Proceedings of the 12th conference on fire and forest meteorology, October 26-28, 1993, Jekyll Island, GA, USA. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD.

Year: 1994

Available from: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 3360

Language: English

CFS Availability: Order paper copy (free)

Abstract

Point-source fires were ignited using matches and "campfires" over a wide range of burning conditions in wet and dry variants of mature lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and white spruce-subalpine fir (Picea glauca x engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa) forests in central British Columbia, in order to model the threshold of sustained people-caused fire ignition. Logistic regression models of sustained flaming ignition probability are presented, in terms of components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. Dry-site lodgepole pine ignition was predicted best from Initial Spread Index (ISI), moist-site lodgepole pine from ISI and Buildup Index (BUI), and white spruce-subalpine fir from ISI and Drought Code (DC). Applications in strategic fire management systems are discussed.