Exotic species risk modelling

• The problem
• Introduction to risk modelling
• Opportunities for spatially explicit risk assessments
• Canadian example applications: European larch canker
• Canadian example applications: Scleroderris
• Canadian example applications: Dung beetle
• Conclusions, acknowledgement and references

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Canadian example applications: Dung beetle

Onthophagus nuchicornis (Linne) is an exotic dung beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). Its distribution has likely expanded in the last 20-30 years to include Alberta and Saskatchewan. Dung beetles promote pasture quality by accelerating the rate at which cattle dung is degraded and incorporated back into the soil. We obtained observation data across North America from Dr. Bob Footitt of Agriculture Canada.

Dung beetle climatic domain

This map shows the climatic domain of the species. The primary purpose of the figure is to illustrate the capacity to undertake continent-wide bioclimatic analysis. If the observation data are available (and trustworthy) such analysis can take place in a matter of a few days. Ensuring data points are properly georeferenced can be time-consuming. Often elevation estimates needed to be added using a DEM. The map is based on a 2km gridded climatology of North America and 92 observations of the dung beetle. Further research by the senior author and Dr. Footitt will demonstrate the sensitivity of the bioclimatic analysis to sample size and sample stratification options.

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