Canadian Forest Service Publications

Performance analysis of BioSIM, a seasonal pest management planning tool, in New Brunswick in 1992 and 1993. 1995. Régnière, J.; Lavigne, D.; Dickison, R.; Staples, A. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Quebec Region, Sainte-Foy, Quebec. Information Report LAU-X-115. 28 p.

Year: 1995

Available from: Laurentian Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 16715

Language: English

Series: Information Report (LFC - Québec)

CFS Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

Abstract

BioSIM is a software tool for use in forecasting events in the seasonal biology of insect pests. Forecasts are made by simulation models provided by the system and are based on regional air temperature databases. The accuracy and usefulness of BioSIM in forecasting the development of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.), in New Brunswick was assessed using development data collected in 1992 and 1993 in the northern portion of the province. It was found that both available models of budworm phenology (the Régnière and the Lysyk models) were highly accurate (± 3 days) in predicting the insect's development. It was also found that BioSIM's compensation for vertical and latitudinal lapse rates produced adequate air temperature regimes for sites that are remote from weather-recording stations, and that the vertical gradients of insect phenology generated by the system reflected observations accurately. This indicates that the system can be used to generate phenology maps for use in pest management decision support systems. The accuracy and precision of phenology forecasts generated by BioSIM depended on the length of the forecast period and on the target life stage. As a rule, early-occurring phenological events (e.g. peak L3) are far more difficult to predict than late-occurring events (e.g. peak L6). Model calibration, using recent phenology observations, can be used to reduce prediction error.

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