Canadian Forest Service Publications

Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at the sub-continental scale: male gypsy moth flight phenology as an example. 1999. Régnière, J.; Sharov, A. International Journal of Biometeorology 42: 146-152.

Year: 1999

Available from: Laurentian Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 16847

Language: English

CFS Availability: Order paper copy (free), PDF (request by e-mail)

Abstract

We simulated male gypsy moth flight phenology for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100° W longitude and north of 35° N latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level.

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