Canadian Forest Service Publications

Prognosis EI: A detailed watershed-level environmental indicators model. 2002. Kurz, W.A.; Beukema, S.J.; Greenough, J.A.; Robinson, D.C.E.; Densmore, N.; Winter, R.; Snowdon, B. Pages 122-125 in N.L. Crookston and R.N. Havis, compilers. Second Forest Vegetation Simulator Conference Proceedings RMS-P-25, February 12-14, 2002, Fort Collins, CO. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station., Ogden, UT. 208 p.

Year: 2002

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 21997

Language: English

Availability: Not available through the CFS (click for more information).

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The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a computer program that projects the development of forest stands in the United States and British Columbia, Canada. The proceedings of the second FVS conference, held in Fort Collins, CO, includes 34 papers dealing with applications of FVS that range from the stand-level through full-scale landscape analyses. Forecasts ranging from wildlife habitat indicators through economic returns on investment take into account the effects of insects, pathogens, and fire. Also presented are recent advances in computer visualization technology, the analysis of model prediction uncertainty, model development techniques, software support tools, and the reconstruction of historical stand conditions.

The new Prognosis Environmental Indicators model (Prognosis EI) was designed to assist forest management planning. The model provides detailed, quantitative environmental impact projections and expected timber flows under user-defined scenarios. Prognosis EI is a linked set of models: the base FVS variant, the western root disease extansion, the fire and fuels extension (FFE), and the new environmental indicators model (EI). These components operate within the Parallel Processing Extension (PPE). The model produces all the standard outputs normally produced by FVS, the FFE, and the PPE. As well, it generates indicators specific to the EI model. These include stand structural indicators such as understory condition; species-specific wildlife indicators such as measures of foraging, nesting, roosting, and denning habitat for pileated woodpeckers, bats, ungulates, grizzly bears, and black bears; landscape spatial indicators such as patch size distribution or amount of interior old growth; water quality indicators, visual quality indicators and active roads. Model outputs can be viewed and analyzed using a flexible custom software interface that requires ArcView GIS. Prognosis EI has been used in a case study to evaluate 21 alternative management and natural disturbance scenarios in the West Arm Demonstration Forest in southeastern British Columbia, Canada. In addition to providing information with which to evaluate the merits of alternative scenarios, the simulation results suggest a number of general conclusions regarding teh impacts of root disease, snag retention practices, unauthorized firewood cutting, and recurrent underburns.