Canadian Forest Service Publications
Testing for temporal dependence of pollen cone production in jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.). 2003. Magnussen, S.; Quintana, F.A.; Nealis, V.G.; Hopkin, A.A. Pages 123-130 in A. Amaro, D.D. Reed, and P. Soares, editors. Modelling Forest Systems. CABI Publishing, Wallingford, Oxon, UK.
Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre
Catalog ID: 23078
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Nine-year records of the presence or absence of pollen cones (microsporangiate strobili) in 1299 Jack pine trees growing in 38 locations (plots) across northern Ontario were tested for temporal dependence. The null hypothesis of a zero-order Markov Chain was tested with three statistics at the tree level and at the location level. Tree level test results were generally in agreement. Only about 5% of the trees had records indicating a significant departure from the null hypothesis. About one-third of the trees carried pollen cones every year or not at all. After adjustment for multiple comparisons no trees violated the null hypothesis. Location level tests relied on Monte-Carlo reference distributions. Depending on the test statistic we found 2 to15 locations with significant departures from the null hypothesis. Conditional (on location) temporal independence is accepted as a reasonable working model. A beta binomial model described reasonably well the overall frequency distribution of the number of years (out of nine) with pollen cones. The intra-location correlation coefficient of pollen cone production was strong (0.40).