Canadian Forest Service Publications

Provincial Level Projection of the Current Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak: An Overview of the model (BCMPB) and Draft Results of Year 1 of the Project. 2004. Eng, M.; Fall, A.; Hughes, J.; Shore, T.L.; Riel, W.G.; Hall, P. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC. Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative Working Paper 2004-01. 39 p.

Year: 2004

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 24655

Language: English

Series: Mountain Pine Beetle Working Paper (PFC - Victoria)

Availability: PDF (download)

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The BC Provincial Scale Mountain Pine Beetle Model (BCMPB) was developed as part of a two-year project to assess the impacts of mountain pine beetle outbreak and management interactions across the entire province. The model uses inputs from the forest cover inventory, management information, and mountain pine beetle provincial aerial overview maps. This report describes the BCMPB and the results of the first year of work.

A range of scenarios was examined to assess the expected impacts of the outbreak under current and alternative management regimes. The process of developing the BCMPB highlighted uncertainties in the "mountain pine beetle - forest management system" that make it difficult to provide exact and unequivocal conclusions. Nonetheless we can conclude the following:

The vast spatial extent of the outbreak implies that a weather-stopping event is unlikely. The model projects that the current outbreak will continue to grow for three to four more years and then gradually decline over a period of 10 or more years. The BCMPB projects, as a worst case, that virtually all of the mature pine susceptible to mountain pine beetle attack will be killed by 2020. We have no reason to expect that less than 80% of the pine will be affected.

Forest management, as modeled, does not alter the spatial and temporal characteristics of the outbreak on the provincial scale. Forest management has the potential to reduce the volumes killed by beetles by increasing the volume of green pine that is harvested. Focusing harvesting on salvage has the potential to reduce non-recovered losses.

Refinements of the BCMPB are ongoing.