Canadian Forest Service Publications

Innovation Diffusion: Predicting Success of System Development. 2004. Thomson, A.J.; Haggith, M.; Prabhu, R. Pages 627-631 in Proceedings of the 15th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications (DEXA'04), August 30-September 3, 2004, Zaragoza, Spain. IEEE Computer Society, Los Alamitos, CA.

Year: 2004

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 24979

Language: English

CFS Availability: Order paper copy (free)

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Abstract

To guide technology transfer, a simulation model of the innovation diffusion process is developed in which the five attributes of an innovation (relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, triability and observability) interact with adopter characteristics. These attributes are combined into a measure of innovation "fitness" to modify adoption rate. A measure of "exposure" is also developed to integrate time, communication channels and prior adoption to predict adoption rate. Behavior of the simulation is explored in relation to sparse data sets, especially in the field of information technology.