Canadian Forest Service Publications

Integrating landscape-scale mountain pine beetle projection and spatial harvesting models to assess management strategies. 2004. Fall, A.; Shore, T.L.; Safranyik, L.; Riel, W.G.; Sachs, D. Pages 114-132 in T.L. Shore, J.E. Brooks, and J.E. Stone, editors. Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions, October 30-31, 2003, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, British Columbia, Information Report BC-X-399. 298 p.

Year: 2004

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 25042

Language: English

Availability: PDF (download)

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Abstract

A landscape-scale mountain pine beetle population model was developed to assess the impacts of mountain pine beetle outbreaks at spatial scales of over 1,000,000 ha. We integrated this model with spatial timber supply and strategic forest management models in the Lakes, Kamloops and Morice timber supply areas of British Columbia, Canada to analyze the potential spread of the current beetle outbreak under a range of potential management activities in various regions of the province. We analyzed a range of scenarios to contrast management alternatives and beetle conditions. Three main types of effects were assessed: area attacked and volume killed by beetles during the outbreak (over the next 10 years), volume salvaged and non-recovered loss expected during and post-outbreak, and cumulative timber supply impacts. The three study areas provide a gradient across the range of conditions within the overall outbreak area. In general, our analysis highlights the likely effects of applying different beetle management strategies under different conditions. Our results imply that an attack pressure threshold exists, below which fine-scale management can improve potential to control an outbreak, and above which management will likely have little effect on the outbreak.