Canadian Forest Service Publications
Regional economic implications of the mountain pine beetle infestation in the northern interior of British Columbia. 2005. Patriquin, M.N.; Heckbert, S.; Nickerson, C.; Spence, M.M.; White, W.A. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC. Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative Working Paper 2005-03. 58 p.
Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre
Catalog ID: 25270
Availability: PDF (download)
Economic impact analysis provides assistance to policy makers with respect to implications of policy options or external influences on the economic system. This report investigates the regional economic impacts resulting from the current mountain pine beetle infestation in the Northern Interior Forest Region of British Columbia, Canada. Two study areas within the Northern Interior are investigated: the Nadina Forest District (comprised of the Morice Timber Supply Area and the Lakes Timber Supply Area) and the Prince George Timber Supply Area (also known as the McGregor Model Forest). Baseline general equilibrium economic databases are constructed for each region using primary and secondary sources. The databases are then used in the construction of a computable general equilibrium model for each region, which are used to simulate future economic indicator levels under different scenarios related to the impact of the mountain pine beetle on timber supply. The potential offsetting impacts of increased agricultural activity and tourism activity are also examined. The scenario analysis provides similar results for both regions. On average, reductions in timber supply resulting from the mountain pine beetle infestation will have serious negative consequences for all sectors of each economy. In both cases, increased tourism activity could partially or fully offset the impact on employment; it will offset the negative impact on monetary indicators to lesser extents. Increased traditional agricultural activity has minimal offsetting impact in terms of employment and monetary indicators. The computable general equilibrium models constructed for each region provide a decision support tool that can assist decision-makers with mitigation planning for the anticipated reductions in timber supply.