Canadian Forest Service Publications

Predicting mortality for even-aged stands of ledgepole pine. 1971. Lee, Y. Forestry Chronicle 47(1): 29-32.

Year: 1971

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 28387

Language: English

Availability: PDF (download)

Mark record


A method is described for the prediction of future mortality of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl.) for the estimation of net growth in planning of a timber management system. Data from British Columbia and Alberta lodgepole pine yield tables were applied to calculate regressions which estimate mortality. Comparisons between the actual and predicted mortality over a 5-year period for 2 sets of permanent sample plot data demonstrate that the method (with mean dbh as predictor) can be used with confidence for estimating future mortality. Percentage distribution of dead trees by dbh class is found to be approximately normal. Number of dead trees for each dbh class can be estimated using a normal distribution. An example shows the method for determining the number of expected dead trees, by dbh classes, for a 5-year period.