Canadian Forest Service Publications
A bioeconomic approach to assess the impact of an alien invasive insect on timber supply and harvesting: a case study with Sirex noctilio in eastern Canada. 2009. Yemshanov, D.; McKenney, D.W.; De Groot, P.; Haugen, D.; Sidders, D.M.; Joss, B.N. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 39: 154 - 168.
Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre
Catalog ID: 29373
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This study presents a model that assesses the potential impact of a new alien insect species, Sirex noctilio Fabricius, on pine timber supply and harvest activities in eastern Canada. We integrate the spread of S. noctilio with a broad-scale growth and harvest allocation mode. Projections of pine mortality range between 25 and 106 and 115 x 106 m3 over 20 years depending on S. noctilio spread and impact assumptions, Our model suggests Ontario could experience the highest, most immediate lossess (78% of the potential losses across eastern Canada), with Quebec sustaining most of the rest of the losses over the next 20 years. Potential losses of $86 to $254 million per year are simulated after 20 years. The net present value of total harvest losses after 28 years of outbreak ranges between $0.7 to $2.1 billion. Adaptation policies decrease short term losses by 46%-55% and delay larger harvest failures by 9-11 years. Without harvest adaptation, failures to maintain annual allowable cut levels may occur once the total area infested exceeds 15 x 106 ha. While better understanding and representing S. noctilio behaviour will involve a significant effort, there is a strong demand by policy makers for this kind of information.