Canadian Forest Service Publications

A new multicriteria risk mapping approach based on a multiattribute frontier concept. 2013. Yemshanov, D.; Koch,F.H.; Ben-Haim, Y.;Downing, M.; Sapio, F.; Siltanen, M. Risk Analysis 33:1694-1709.

Year: 2013

Available from: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 34326

Language: English

CFS Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

Available from the Journal's Web site.
DOI: 10.1111/risa.12013

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Abstract

Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate resources for pest monitoring and regulation, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance, or introduction potential) as independent entities. These independent risk components are integrated using various multicriteria analysis techniques that typically require prior knowledge of the risk components’ importance. Such information is often nonexistent for many invasive pests. This study proposes a new approach for building integrated risk maps using the principle of a multiattribute efficient frontier and analyzing the partial order of elements of a risk map as distributed in multidimensional criteria space. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multiattribute ranking against a multicriteria linear weighted averaging technique in the presence of uncertainties, using the concept of robustness from info-gap decision theory. The results show major geographic hotspots where the consideration of tradeoffs between multiple risk components changes integrated risk rankings. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests, which usually have an extremely poor prior knowledge base.

Plain Language Summary

: Invasive species risk maps provide broad guidance on where to allocate pest monitoring and regulation resources, but they often present individual risk components (such as climatic suitability, host abundance or introduction potential) as independent entities, which are integrated using techniques that typically require prior knowledge of their importance. Such information is often nonexistent for invasive pests. We propose a new approach for building integrated risk maps maps and apply a new multi-criteria approach that integrates individual risk criteria by finding a multi-attribute frontier in dimensions of individual criteria. The approach helps by aggregating multiple aspects of pest invasion risk into a one-dimensional metric, which can then be used for prioritizing various suveillance and management actions. The integrated risks are estimated as subsequent multiattribute frontiers in dimensions of individual risk criteria. We demonstrate the approach with the example of Agrilus biguttatus Fabricius, a high-risk pest that may threaten North American oak forests in the near future. Drawing on U.S. and Canadian data, we compare the performance of the multicriteria ranking against a linear weighted averaging aggregation technique in the presence of uncertainties. Both methods delineate similar geographical regions of high and low risks. Overall, aggregation based on a delineation of multiattribute efficient frontiers can be a useful tool to prioritize risks for anticipated invasive pests.

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