Canadian Forest Service Publications

A lightning fire occurrence model for Ontario. 2005. Wotton, B.M.; Martell, D.L. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35:1389-1401.

Year: 2005

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 36064

Language: English

Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

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Lightning strike, fire weather, and fire occurrence data were used to model (i) the probability that a light ning strike causes a sustainable ignition on the forest floor and (//') the probability of an ignition being detected and re ported to the fire management agency for each ecoregion in the province of Ontario. An index that tracks duff moisture content in very sheltered areas of a forest stand (near the tree boles) was the most significant predictor in each ignition model. The presence of positive cloud-to-ground lightning strikes was also found to have a significant and positive influence on the probability of ignition in most areas of the province with the exception of the far north west. Weather conditions following a lightning storm influence the probability that a lightning strike causes a sustain able ignition. Models of the probability of delecting a fire ignited by lightning were also created for each of the ccoregions across Ontario. The form of these models varied somewhat among ecoregions, but contained an indicator of receptive surface fire spread conditions and an indicator of the dryness of the heavier fuels (the organic layer) in the forest floor.