Canadian Forest Service Publications

Evaluation of two risk mitigation strategies for dealing with fire-related uncertainty in timber supply modelling. 2010. Savage, D.W.; Martell, D.L.; Wotton, B.M.Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40:1136-1154.

Year: 2010

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 36066

Language: English

Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

Available from the Journal's Web site.
DOI: 10.1139/x10-065

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We embedded a linear programming timber harvest scheduling model into an aspatial stochastic simulation model of a flammable forest to evaluate two fire risk mitigation strategies. The harvest scheduling model is solved repeatedly to produce harvest schedules within a rolling planning horizon framework. The risk mitigation strategies we examined were (1) whether or not to account for fire in the planning model and (2) replanning interval. We evaluated those strategies under four representative fire regimes. We found that accounting for fire in the planning model reduced the harvest volume variability as fire activity increased (i.e., for average annual burn fractions ‡0.45%), but replanning intervals over a range of 1 to 10 years had little impact on harvest volume variability. We also developed a risk analysis decision-making aid that forest managers can use to help deal with fire-related uncertainty. Our results suggest that risk-averse forest managers should account for fire while planning, especially when burn fractions exceed 0.45%.