Canadian Forest Service Publications

Erlangian approximations for the transient analysis of a fluid queue model for forest fire perimeter. 2009. Woolford. D.G.; Stanford, D.A.; Kulperger, R.J.; Boychuk, D.; Wotton, B.M. INFOR 47:309-317.

Year: 2009

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 36153

Language: English

Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

Available from the Journal's Web site.
DOI: 10.3138/infor.47.4.305

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Abstract—This paper presents how the Erlangization method can be employed to estimate probabilities for the time-dependent behaviour of the level in a Markov modulated fluid flow. Formulas are given for estimating the probability of transitions to any fluid level, starting from an initial level in either an increasing or a decreasing stage in the phase process, prior to a finite timepoint of interest. This methodology is applied to a model developed to study the evolution of uncontrolled fire perimeter for forest fires in Ontario, Canada. The model estimates the relative effectiveness of fire suppression under various fire-weather and fuel type scenarios, focusing on containment and escape probabilities. Numerical results are provided for illustrative purposes