Canadian Forest Service Publications
Erlangian approximations for the transient analysis of a fluid queue model for forest fire perimeter. 2009. Woolford. D.G.; Stanford, D.A.; Kulperger, R.J.; Boychuk, D.; Wotton, B.M. INFOR 47:309-317.
Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre
Catalog ID: 36153
Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)
Available from the Journal's Web site. †
† This site may require a fee
Abstract—This paper presents how the Erlangization method can be employed to estimate probabilities for the time-dependent behaviour of the level in a Markov modulated fluid flow. Formulas are given for estimating the probability of transitions to any fluid level, starting from an initial level in either an increasing or a decreasing stage in the phase process, prior to a finite timepoint of interest. This methodology is applied to a model developed to study the evolution of uncontrolled fire perimeter for forest fires in Ontario, Canada. The model estimates the relative effectiveness of fire suppression under various fire-weather and fuel type scenarios, focusing on containment and escape probabilities. Numerical results are provided for illustrative purposes