Canadian Forest Service Publications

Identifying and assessing critical uncertainty thresholds in a forest pest risk model. (Chapter 13)2015. Koch, F.H.; Yemshanov, D. Pages 189-205 in CABI pest Risk Modelling and Mapping for Invasive Alien Species. R.C.Venette,editor.

Year: 2015

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 36286

Language: English

Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

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Plain Language Summary

This chapter explores how increased uncertainty in a risk model’s numeric assumptions affects the resulting risk map. We used a spatial stochastic model, integrating components for entry, establishment and spread, to estimate the risks of invasion and their variation across a two-dimensional gridded landscape for Sirex noctilio, a non-native woodwasp. We present a sensitivity analysis of the mapped risk estimates to variation in six key model parameters: (i) the annual probabilities of S. noctilio entries at US and Canadian ports; (ii) the S. noctilio population-carrying capacity at a given location; (iii) the maximum annual spread distance; (iv) the probability of local dispersal (i.e. at a distance of 1 km); (v) the susceptibility of the host resource; and (vi) the growth rate of the host trees. The results show that maximum annual spread distance was the most sensitive parameter.