Canadian Forest Service Publications
Biophysical and economic analysis of black spruce regeneration in eastern Canada using global climate model productivity outputs. Climate Change. 2017. Lee, J.; McKenney, D.W.; Pedlar, J.J.; Arain, M.A. Forests 8:106.
Year: 2017
Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre
Catalog ID: 37267
Language: English
Availability: PDF (download)
Available from the Journal's Web site. †
DOI: 10.3390/f8040106
† This site may require a fee
Abstract
We explore the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study integrates net primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity estimates from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield equations specific to black spruce, and economic analyses to determine spatially varying investment values of black spruce regeneration—both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was used to represent financial attractiveness. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3·ha−1. A baseline case with the stumpage price set to $20 m−3, stand establishment cost $500 ha−1, and the discount rate 4%, was used with wide-ranging sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. These values represent the wide range of choices and outcomes possible with black spruce regeneration investments. The results indicated a latitudinal gradient in economic attractiveness, with higher forest productivity and NPVs in the southern portion of the study area; however, black spruce regeneration was not economically attractive unless regeneration costs were very low (representing something closer to a natural regeneration type scenario) and/or carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton−1 CO2 were realized. In general, the optimal harvest rotation age increased with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. Results of this study highlight the importance of future price and yield expectations and establishment costs in evaluating forest investments.
Plain Language Summary
We explore the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under climate change. The study integrates net primary productivity (NPP) estimates from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield equations specific to black spruce, and economic analyses to determine spatially varying investment values of black spruce plantations – both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was used to represent the financial attractiveness of long-rotation forest plantations through time. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3 ha-1. The price of stumpage was set to $20 m-3, stand establishment cost was set to $500 ha-1, and the discount rate was considered at 4%, with sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. The results indicated a latitudinal gradient in the economic attractiveness of black spruce plantations, with higher forest productivity and NPV in the southern portion of the study area; however, black spruce plantations were not economically attractive unless carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton-1 CO2 were realized. The optimal harvest rotation age increased with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. This study contributes to ongoing efforts to identify the timber growth and carbon sequestration investment potential of future forests under a changing climate.
