Canadian Forest Service Publications

Macrorefugia for North American trees and songbirds: Climatic limiting factors and multi-scale topographic influences. 2018. Stralberg, D.; Carroll, C.; Pedlar, J.H.; Wilsey, C.B.; McKenney, D.W.; Nielsen, S.E. Global Ecology and Biogeography:

Year: 2018

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 39108

Language: English

Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

Available from the Journal's Web site.
DOI: 10.1111/geb.12731

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Plain Language Summary

Our aim is to inform conservation planning in the face of climate change. Our objectives were to map spatial patterns of tree and songbird macrorefugia; to identify climatic limiting factors by region and taxonomic group; and to quantify multi-scale topographic components of end-of-century biotic refugia. We used species distribution models for 324 trees and 268 songbirds to develop a macrorefugia index using species-specific climate velocity. Maps of multi-species refugia potential were developed for each taxonomic/functional group and quantile regression was used to identify climatic limiting factors and relationships with multi-scale topographic variables. We concluded that macrorefugia patterns are partly explained by steep elevational or latitudinal temperature gradients and/or moderate climates, such as coastal regions. However, climatic limiting factors for these refugia suggest contrasts in the ecological processes governing warm-end range limits for different taxa in different regions. Our framework can be applied to other regions, taxa, and time periods to generate and explain biologically meaningful indices of macrorefugia for conservation planning.