Canadian Forest Service Publications

Risk assessment for wildland fire aerial detection patrol route planning in Ontario, Canada. 2019. McFayden, C.B.; Woolford, D.G.; Stacey, A.; Boychuk, D.; Johnston, J.M.; Wheatley, M.J.; Martell, D.L. International Journal of Wildland Fire: https://doi.org/10.1071/WF19084.

Year: 2019

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 39981

Language: English

Availability: PDF (request by e-mail)

Available from the Journal's Web site.
DOI: 10.1071/WF19084

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Plain Language Summary

A model based on expert elicitation to combine factors that represent the risk of not searching a specified area for the detection of wildland fires is developed for and applied in Ontario, Canada. A three-step assessment process that focuses on risk, opportunity and tolerance is used. Fire occurrence probability, resources and assets, headfire intensity and public detection probability are key components. Subjective assessment of the relative importance of these factors were elicited from experts at the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry to approximate their behaviour and considerations when assessing risk, yielding a risk index for aerial detection patrol route planning. The model provides a daily, spatially explicit risk assessment on a fine scale for the entire province that is automated and consistent, aiding aerial detection planners in their daily routing of detection patrol aircraft. A retrospective analysis found a statistically significant association between GPS data from aerial detection patrols and aerial detection demand index values: detection patrols were more likely to pass through areas where the index was higher.