Canadian Forest Service Publications
Combining US and Canadian forest inventories to assess habitat suitability and migration potential of 25 tree species under climate change. Prasad, A., Pedlar, J., Peters, M., McKenney, D.W., Iverson, L., Matthews, S., Adams, B., Divers Distrib. 2020;26:1142–1159
Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre
Catalog ID: 40193
Availability: PDF (download)
Plain Language Summary
For the species examined here, habitat losses were primarily experienced along southern range limits, while habitat gains were associated with northern range limits (especially under RCP 8.5). However, for many species, southern range limits are projected to remain relatively intact, albeit with reduced habitat quality. Our models predict that only a small portion of the climatic habitat generated by climate change will be colonized naturally by the end of the current century— even with optimistic tree migration rates. However, considerable variation among species points to the need for significant management efforts, including assisted migration, for economic or ecological reasons. Our work highlights the need to employ range-wide data, evaluate colonization potentials and enhance cross-border collaborations.