Canadian Forest Service Publications

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.Mariana García Criado, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Anne D. Bjorkman, Signe Normand, Anne Blach-Overgaard, Haydn J. D. Thomas, Anu Eskelinen, Konsta Happonen, Juha M. Alatalo, Alba Anadon-Rosell, Isabelle Aubin, Mariska te Beest, Katlyn R. Betway-May, Daan Blok, Allan Buras, Bruno E. L. Cerabolini, Katherine Christie, J. Hans C. Cornelissen, Bruce C. Forbes, Esther R. Frei, Paul Grogan, Luise Hermanutz, Robert D. Hollister, James Hudson, Maitane Iturrate-Garcia, Elina Kaarlejärvi, Michael Kleyer, Laurent J. Lamarque, Jonas J. Lembrechts, Esther Lévesque, Miska Luoto, Petr Macek, Jeremy L. May, Janet S. Prevéy, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub, Serge N. Sheremetiev, Laura Siegwart Collier, Nadejda A. Soudzilovskaia, Andrew Trant, Susanna E. Venn & Anna-Maria Virkkala

Year: 2023

Issued by: Great Lakes Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 41083

Language: English

Availability: Not available through the CFS (click for more information).

Available from the Journal's Web site. †
DOI: doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39573-4

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Abstract

A changing climate leads to the redistribution of species, in the tundra biome we see that the range of shrubs is expanding due to increases in temperature. Understanding which species will persist (winner) and which will diminish (loser) based on species specific characteristics is not fully identified. We investigate the impact of past species abundance changes, current species information (range size, predicted range shifts) based on species distribution models relating to functional traits and intraspecific trait variation. We modeled future predictions 62 tundra shrub species distributions, ranging three continents, based on 17,921 species trait records throughout history. We found that species which showed greater variability in seed mass and specific leaf area also had larger predicted range shifts. Predicted winner species had greater seed mass values, but trait values and variation were not always related to current and predicted distributions, or to historical changes in abundance. Our findings indicate that species abundance changes and range shifts will not lead to changes in shrub trait composition because of shared traits between winner and loser species. Therefore, we see that a changing climate may change the species composition in tundra habitats but the functional impact on the environment will not change considerably.

Plain Language Summary

A changing climate leads to the redistribution of species, in the tundra biome we see that the range of shrubs is expanding due to increases in temperature. Understanding which species will persist (winner) and which will diminish (loser) based on species specific characteristics is not fully identified. We investigate the impact of past species abundance changes, current species information (range size, predicted range shifts) based on species distribution models relating to functional traits and intraspecific trait variation. We modeled future predictions 62 tundra shrub species distributions, ranging three continents, based on 17,921 species trait records throughout history. We found that species which showed greater variability in seed mass and specific leaf area also had larger predicted range shifts. Predicted winner species had greater seed mass values, but trait values and variation were not always related to current and predicted distributions, or to historical changes in abundance. Our findings indicate that species abundance changes and range shifts will not lead to changes in shrub trait composition because of shared traits between winner and loser species. Therefore, we see that a changing climate may change the species composition in tundra habitats but the functional impact on the environment will not change considerably.