Canadian Forest Service Publications

An analysis of the impact of changes in provincial and international softwood lumber supply and trade flows on British Columbia. 1996. Delcourt, G.V.; Bohman, M.; van Kooten, G.C.; Wilson, W.R. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC. Working Paper WP-96.01, copublished by the BC Ministry of Forests.

Year: 1996

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 4681

Language: English

Series: Working Paper WP (PFC - Victoria)

Availability: PDF (download)

Mark record


Softwood lumber exports remain a mainstay in the British Columbia (BC) forest products industry. However, reduced access to standing timber stocks and recently legislated forest management practices are expected to provide significant challenges to BC lumber producers. A partial spatial equilibrium model, the Global Softwood Lumber Trade Model (SLM), was developed to analyze changes in global softwood lumber trade. SLM focuses on the British Columbia forest sector and how changes in BC government policy (i.e., reductions in the annual allowable cut (AAC), reforestation and silviculture investments), and the forest policies in other competing regions, impact trade flows and prices, and the economic well-being of BC residents. Economic impact results from SLM projections indicate that, in the long term, a permanent reduction in AAC leads to greater economic gains for BC than does a temporary reduction in AAC that is followed by increased production through investments in reforestation and enhanced silviculture. These results suggest that a BC strategy of silvicultural investment for an increased timber objective needs to be carefully considered. An examination of the return on such investments, both in timber and non-timber terms, will serve to ensure an improved targeting of the increasingly limited investment funds.