Canadian Forest Service Publications

A population dynamics model for the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopk. (Coleoptera : Scolytidae) 1999. Safranyik, L.; Barclay, H.J.; Thomson, A.J.; Riel, W.G. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, BC. Information Report BC-X-386. 35 p.

Year: 1999

Issued by: Pacific Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 5343

Language: English

Series: Information Report (PFC - Victoria)

Availability: Order paper copy (free), PDF (download)

Mark record

Abstract

An interactive simulation model of mountain pine beetle population dynamics was developed in the Windows-95 environment. A 1-ha area of pure lodgepole pine is simulated. The model is composed of four main parts: a forest stand sub-model, a mountain pine beetle biology sub-model, beetle management sub-models, and an input-output interface. The forest stand sub-model predicts lodgepole pine growth and yield and is based on previously published yield tables. The mountain pine beetle biology sub-models are process-based and simulate attack dynamics within and among trees, brood establishment, development and survival in relation to tree, site and stand factors, temperature and natural enemies. These sub-models are based on published information and, where data were lacking, on the experience of the authors with mountain pine beetle biology and management and simulation modeling. The beetle management sub-models simulate individual tree treatments, pheromone baiting, removal of infested or uninfested trees, and tree spacing. Theoretical control scenarios can also be explored by introducing control factors at specified stage of brood development. The interface allows for interactive manipulation of tree, site and insect variables in order to assess effects on the course of an infestation evaluated by graphical or tabular outputs of results. The model has not been tested against data because the type of complex data that would be required are lacking. In simulated runs, the model generally gave qualitatively accurate descriptions of the course of infestations in terms of the relative effects of tree and site factors and management interventions.