Canadian Forest Service Publications

Evaluation of the predictive capacity of the Eastern Hemlock Looper Decision Support System. 1996. Carroll, A.L. Pages 9-14 in T.L. Shore and D.A. MacLean, Editors. Decision Support Systems for Forest Pest Management, Proceedings: wkshp. at Jnt. Mtg. of the Entomol. Societies of Canada and British Columbia. October 17, 1995, Victoria, B.C. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria BC, FRDA Report 260.

Year: 1996

Issued by: Atlantic Forestry Centre

Catalog ID: 6275

Language: English

Availability: Order paper copy (free)

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The predictive capacity of the defoliation risk component of the Eastern Hemlock Looper Decision Support System was determined during 1995. The area and number of forest stands actually defoliated by the hemlock looper in the Corner Brook region of Newfoundland were directly compared with those predicted by the defoliation risk models of the decision support system. Whereas 12 290 ha of forest and 1884 stands were defoliated by the hemlock looper in the study area during 1995, the decision support system predicted a significant probability of defoliation for only 1649 ha and 262 stands. Extensive natural and anthropongenic alterations to the forests of insular Newfoundland during the last several decades has limited the predictive capacity of simulation models based on history. Additional research toward the development of process-based models that simulate the interaction of hemlock looper and balsam fir forests will yield more accurate predictions of looper impacts.