Regional, national and international climate modeling

• Introduction
• Long term mean climate grids for Canada and the United States
• Historical monthly climate grids for North America
• Daily models
• Climate change scenarios
• Obtain climate estimates at your locations
• Other miscellaneous surfaces
• Bioclimatic Parameter definitions
• Other bioclimatic variables
• References

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Climate change scenarios

A climate change scenario is a description of a possible future climate based on assumptions of how the earth’s climate operates, future world population levels, economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions. We have interpolated several climate change scenarios for use in climate change impact studies.

Models of average monthly minimum and maximum temperature and total precipitation are available at this web site for the IPCC Third Assessment CGCM2, HadleyCM3 and CSIRO-Mk2, A2 and B2 scenarios for the following 30-year average periods: 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The models can be viewed or downloaded. The future scenario values can also be compared to current (1971-2000) averages. Also available are the IPCC 4th Assessment CGCM31MR, CSIROMK35, NCARCCSM3, A2, A1B and A2 for the same future periods. Models for individual years (2011-2100) are available by request from Dan McKenney.

Please see the following reports for technical details and the full description of all the data that have been generated:

• High resolution climate change scenarios for North America (2006)
• High-resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for Canada derived from general circulation model simulations (2011)
• High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations (2011)

For more information about climate change scenario data in general see the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Data Distribution Centre.

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